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| Mr. Venkat Raghavan |
Kashmir is in the news. Kashmir has quite been in the news! Globally it is known as a flash-point.
But what is the story? Whence Kashmir?
Hope you like this note.
I. Some context and history is needed
Kashmir is the northernmost province of India. It looks like a head with a body that extends to the Indian Ocean in the south (Bengal and Gujarat being the arms). From Kashmir in north to Kanyakumari - the southern tip in the province of Tamil Nadu it is a span of 3200 km (2000 miles). The landlocked Kashmir has Pakistan to its west, Tibet (China) to its east, and Tajikistan (part of the former USSR) in the North. And Afghanistan border is not too far either.
Kashmir’s history is as rich as rest of India’s. After Hindu and Buddhist beginnings since 14th century it was under Muslim Rulers and after the fall of Mughals, Sikhs became rulers in the first half of 19th century after five centuries of Muslim rule. But Sikhs lost it when they lost the broader Anglo-Sikh war. Then the Raja of Jammu (not Kashmir) a Hindu Dogra King, who swore allegiance to British got the Kashmir as a “goodwill” and it involved payment too! They are the ones who ruled under the suzerainty of British from 1846 (100 years until 1947).
THE BIG 1947: When partitioning of India happened, this is how it was designed. Muslim majority areas to Pakistan. And Hindu majority areas to India. Weirdly, Pakistan had almost identical sizes of West (the current Pakistan) and East (now Bangladesh) flanking India. Two disjointed portions separated by 2000 km but part of one new Nation - Pakistan. India in between.
But that wasn’t the most complex thing about partition. There were over 500 (yes, five hundred) princely states (we know bigger ones such as Hyderabad Nizam, Trivandrum or Mysore, but there were numerous others) that occupied nearly 40% of undivided India that was not given to either India or Pakistan as part of Mountbatten plan. Nearly 40% of the pre-partition subcontinent (probably equal in size to present day India in area) the decision to join either India or Pakistan or stay independent was left to them. Left to their Kings in a way.
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| Nehru & Mountbattens |
If Kashmir wasn’t a separate princely state (if either it was taken directly from Moguls in 1820 by Britain like they took over Gangetic plains from Moguls around the same period, or “if” they took it over after victory over the Sikh king in 1846 (instead of handing over to Dogra King), then Kashmir would have been given automatically to Pakistan as a Muslim majority territory in 1947 as per Mountbatten plan. But now it was left to the Hindu Dogra King Hari Singh to decide who to join. But he wasn’t deciding to join either India or Pakistan initially.
The stakeholders: Firstly the people of Kashmir, the Indian Nation and the neighboring nations. Of the neighbouring nations - Pakistan has a lot at stake here with its share of Kashmir (Azad Kashmir under the control of Pakistan) and it has tacit if not explicit support of the other neighbour China.
Coming to the #1 stakeholder: Muslims numbering 5.5 million make up 97% of the population of Kashmir now (excluding Jammu and Ladakh which have a different demography).
The other stakeholders, though much smaller in population compared to Muslims are Kashmiri Pundits who presumably were the original Hindu inhabitants of Kashmir for a few millennia before the advent of Islam when there were large scale conversions. The minority which held on to their original religion are the Kashmiri Pundits of today and they number less than half a million and only a couple of thousands still live in Kashmir. The rest are dispersed throughout India (especially post 1987) and the world. Though small in number, Kashmiri pundits owing to their academic and professional excellence are a huge influence occupying positions of power in India and abroad.
The first prime minister of India who ruled the country for 16 years until his death winning successive elections Jawaharlal Nehru is a Kashmiri Pundit. Ironically, this great statesman of India who influenced the country’s destiny since the independence struggle, this Kashmiri Pundit, is accused of betraying his community having made a concession by way of article 370 that gave more autonomy to majority Muslims. His daughter Indira was Prime Minister for 14 years and grandson Rajiv Gandhi too was a PM.
II. Trouble
After 15th August 1947, Raja Hari Singh didn’t say anything about joining India or Pakistan. Instead he signed a “standstill” agreement with Pakistan for continuity of trade and transport ( he didn’t do that with India) But trouble brewed internally. Muslims (even though they were in majority) believed they were oppressed in many ways and most importantly unrealistic and brutal taxes by the King. King had ordered shooting on a set of protesters and the people in the western part of Kashmir took up arms, and helped by infiltrating Pathans it became a big revolt. They declared the area as “AZAD KASHMIR” after seizing control of territory from King. In India we call this area as PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir). This may be misconstrued as though this was a region taken away by Pakistan from India, but this happened even before Kashmir’s ascension to India.
That is when Raji Hari Singh in October 1947 sought India’s help to stop the spread of menace of Azad Kashmir further. India wanted him to sign the ascension document first. India sent its troops and quelled the spread. And Jammu and Kashmir became part of India.
The whole area of J&K that we see in Indian maps is not administered by India. As we already said, the western part of Kashmir is under Pakistan control and also some part of the North East Kashmir is with China. Again, this was not a territory entirely ceded to China after independence. This was disputed by China right from British times which they kept under their control (Aksai Chin is a long story too)
How did J&K remain largely peaceful until 1980s?
SHAIKH ABDULLAH: A towering Kashmiri personality who was revolting against abolition of king and autonomous Kashmir much before the independence. He was the leader of Kashmiris since 1930s and had hobnobbed with Congress leaders during freedom struggle.
The entire state of united Jammu and Kashmir had 70% Muslims population. The Kashmiri Muslims had a stronger cultural identity separate from Pakistani Muslims. The East Pakistan’s Bengali speaking Paksitanis who initially were part of Pakistan later became an independent nation called Bangladesh, correct? That was because they had a rich culture separate from a Punjabi dominated culture of (West) Pakistan. It was similar if not more accentuated for Kashmiri Muslims. Shaikh Abdullah knew this more than anyone else.
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| Shaikh Abdullah |
J&K’s ascension to India was never full-hearted for Kashmir Muslims. However, they weren’t too keen to join Pakistan either. Innately, they wanted their separate nation. Thus, they wanted to begin with some autonomy hoping they will get full autonomy later. That is where the article 370 comes. That article 370 was a pretense of India in one sense -for us rest of Indians, but real for Kashmiris.
Article 370 should not be seen as an arbitrary mindless thought of Great Indian Administration of those days. Nehru, Patel, Krishna Menon, and in the bureaucracy a bigger battalion. Article 370 came and stayed.
How and when did the trouble get bigger?
III. Flare up to the current situation
Kashmir had been relatively peaceful till mid-eighties. This is not to be misconstrued as a complete change of heart on part of people or leadership from full autonomy to a total acceptance of status quo. The India Pakistan Wars, The China conflict, Bangladesh formation; all of them played a part in the psyche of Kashmir people and leadership which kept region mostly quiet.
But in 80s, a lot of developments happened which may have rekindled the rebellion. The Khalistan movement, though was quelled, made them take notice. Ulfa (Assam), and even Tamil Eezham movements. But these were merely sentiments. But instruments are more important. Zia Ul Haq brought in fundamentalist Islam in Pakistan. Arab Oil Money started pouring in aplenty. But most importantly, Taliban displaced mighty Russians from Afghanistan. This must have been massively encouraging for other Islam Nation aspirants. The unit that was guerilla war hardened is now idle after victory over Russians and looking at “gainful” employment elsewhere. This fueled the unrest in Kashmir.
From the 90s onwards, it has been a downhill continually. India spends a lot of money to keep up with the struggle, but financial aspects are secondary. It has become India’s political minefield internationally. Unless India can establish that it is a business-as-usual state, it will be under pressure internationally.
An additional factor was the recent US deal with Taliban to withdraw US troops by 2020. This potentially creates a security risk for India with the Taliban fighters headed to Kashmir.
IV. What has been done now
The State of Jammu and Kashmir in fact comprises of three distinct territories. The not so hilly and temperate Jammu on the south which has Hindu majority, on the North and West Kashmir which is completely mountainous which has Srinagar and other important holiday spots which has a 97% Muslim population, and the sparsely populated high altitude snowy desert like Ladakh region mostly Buddhists.
The state has now been bifurcated!
The Ladakh region has been separated from Jammu and Kashmir. It becomes a Union Territory (with no local provincial legislative) under direct federal rule of the centre.
How does this help? The Ladakh region bordering Tibet (China) has a problem of a different nature. While there is no internal strife, the area of Aksai Chin within Ladakh territory is disputed between India and China and is an diplomatic and military irritant. By isolating this region, the territorial problem of Aksai Chin with China is disentangled from rest of Jammu and Kashmir. If needed India could go soft on Aksai Chin and this can be dealt in isolation of what stance india takes on J&K.
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| Ladakh - now an Union Territory |
Repealing Article 370 send clear signals that India once and for all wants to assert full sovereignty over Kashmir. It sends the signals not only to internal Kashmiris but to the international community as well.
V. Personal Conclusion
It had to come to a head now. And this will certainly ignite a fresh set of aggravated conflict. Will it be purely the informal civilian war or would it also involve a war between neighbors is a big question. From the already tremendous international pressure we have, imagine what levels of coercion India could face when the conflicts escalate! Whether there will be a happy end for India is far from visualizable now.
Risk maybe bigger than reward: Repealing article 370 is like catching the tiger’s tail. If the tiger is not fully subdued and until it is safely locked inside a cage, you never know. Why do we have to catch the tiger’s tail now? It is because we are at a point where the tiger has already done a lot of damage and either we catch it or we leave its habitat. There is no way, India can continue to play hide and seek. India perhaps had a hard struggle to keep the balance in J&K. It would be unfair to say previous administrations did nothing.
Two potential scenarios in the near future:
Scenario 1: This ends up being a bad move. We would see unprecedented violence. There will be international intervention. That would fail because no party would agree to rescinding on any point. There could be a war across the border. At the end, India would not only not succeed to keep the territory but suffer severe losses including economic that would set it back by 10 years if not more. Or worse, it is an international conflagaration.
Scenario 2: There might be an initial escalation. But investment would flow in now that other Indians can buy property here. Set up IT parks. Do a large scale development of Tourism. Kashmir valley has remained stagnant in hospitality development when the rest of the country has grown leaps and bounds. Now is the time to build top notch hotels and let foreign tourists as well as Indian tourists to get to appreciate what no one has seen in a long time. Locals must be given preference in employment (legislate 75 reservation for Kashmiris). With Economic prosperity, the locals will see how the notion of suppression was false and begin to assimilate. The growth in Industry would have also settle a large number of other Indians making the society a plural one rather than a monochromic one now that caused the problem.
As always, it is impossible to predict the future. The best we can do is understand the context and history and think through scenarios that might be possible in the future.